Two days ahead of the Munich Security Conference, The ONE Campaign publishes its new report “The Security Paradox: More Defense, Less Stability?”. It analyzes security-related expenditures by the top 10 OECD defense spenders between 2015 and 2024 and finds a clear trend: Security policy is increasingly prioritizing ‘hard power’ over ‘soft power’.

ONE’s report finds that for every $1 the top 10 OECD military spenders invest in development and diplomacy combined, they spend $7 on defense. While defense spending has surged by almost 30 per cent in the last ten years (from $1.14 trillion in 2015 to $1.45 trillion in 2024), Official Development Assistance (ODA) as a share of GDP has plateaued or declined across most top defense spenders.

“In light of growing global conflicts, many OECD countries have significantly increased their military capacities. Unfortunately, they are doing it at the expense of development and diplomacy – the very tools that help prevent future crises and contribute to solving conflicts”, says Stephan Exo-Kreischer, ONE’s Executive Director for Continental Europe. “Even though armed-based conflicts rank among the top short-term threats, none of the long-term global risks are military in nature, as a recent WEF study suggests. You can’t tackle climate change, forced displacement, or pandemics with tanks and fighter jets.”

This growing imbalance within the 3Ds (Defense, Development & Diplomacy) not only undermines the security efforts made by the surge of defense investments, it also has geopolitical implications. “China is expanding its global influence by investing across defense, development, and diplomacy – from the Belt and Road Initiative to the world’s largest diplomatic network”, says Stephan Exo-Kreischer. “Russia, meanwhile, is deepening ties in fragile and authoritarian states by trading security support for political and diplomatic alignment. If OECD countries do not want to lose influence and increase their long-term security, they must strengthen their investments in development and diplomacy alongside defense. Otherwise, we’re losing the soft power war and will be underprepared to defend ourselves against the most serious threats of the future.”

ONE calls on the OECD to implement an integrated 3D approach by:

1. matching increases in defense spending with proportional investments in development and diplomacy
   
2. allocating development and diplomacy spending more strategically, with a focus on prevention
   
3. recognizing health as a security factor

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Notes to the Editor: 

• ONE will be on the ground at the Munich Security Conference and is available for background briefings and interviews. Please contact Scherwin Saedi: [email protected] 

• An overview of key findings is available here

• The full report can be accessed here

About The ONE Campaign:
ONE is a global, nonpartisan organization advocating for the investments needed to create economic opportunities and healthier lives in Africa. Since 2004, we have helped secure more than $1 trillion in new investments to build a safer, more prosperous world. Our trusted advocacy combines hard-hitting data, grassroots activism and political engagement to influence decision-makers and drive lasting change.

Learn more at ONE.org