• ONE analysis of Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts shows UK aid at 0.29% of national income in 2027, around £320 million short of the government’s 0.3% target

• New OBR figures predict national income will be 3.4% larger in 2027 than when aid budgets were fixed (£3,233 billion against £3,128 billion) – but aid was fixed in cash and has not moved with it
  
• This stealth cut is compounded by revelations that the Home Office can keep underspends on migrant hotel bills in the UK – despite it coming from money earmarked for international aid

• Almost £1 in every £5 of UK aid (18.4%, or £2.4 billion) was spent on refugee costs in the UK in 2025, against an OECD donor average of 13.2%

• Bilateral aid for programmes in developing countries will be cut by 43% between 2024-25 and 2028-29

LONDON, UK – October 28, 2026 – UK aid is set to fall below the government’s own 0.3% target in 2027, according to ONE’s analysis of the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts published alongside today’s Budget. 

On current plans, aid will be 0.29% of national income – around £320 million short of the minimum 0.3% of Gross National Income.

Aid budgets were fixed in cash at the 2025 Spending Review, based on the OBR’s March 2025 forecast. The economy is now forecast to be 3.4% larger in 2027 (£3,233 billion against £3,128 billion). The aid budget has not moved with it, and today’s Budget did nothing to fix this shortfall.

This ‘stealth cut’ comes amid revelations that savings from falling refugee accommodation costs no longer automatically return to aid. The Independent Commission for Aid Impact (ICAI), the government’s aid watchdog, reported in March that under a July 2025 arrangement the Home Office can keep them and spend on unrelated priorities. 

Meanwhile, bilateral aid is being cut by 43%, with Somalia down 49%, South Sudan 46% and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) 29% as the DRC battles its deadliest Ebola outbreak ever.

UK aid is facing a shortfall of £320 million below the government’s own 0.3% target in 2027 – while the bilateral aid budget is being cut by 43%.

Adrian Lovett, UK Executive Director of the ONE Campaign, said:

“The government promised to spend 0.3% of national income on aid. On the OBR’s own forecasts, it will miss that by around £320 million next year, simply because the economy has grown in cash terms since 2025.

“In Somalia, which is facing threats of famine, UK aid is being cut by half. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, it’s being cut by nearly a third – amid the worst Ebola outbreak in the country’s history.

“With the UK set to host the G20 next year, the government has a chance to show it still takes global leadership seriously. The Chancellor must make 0.3% a genuine floor and return every pound saved on refugee costs to the aid budget. The 2027 budget should be topped up by the roughly £320 million needed to meet it. The government must not short-change the world’s most vulnerable people.”

-ENDS-

Notes to Editors:

ONE analysis of OBR figures:

UK gross national income (GNI) in 2027 of £3,233 billion is from the OBR’s October 2026 detailed forecast tables (economy, Table 1.2), compared with £3,127.9 billion in the March 2025 forecast used to set aid budgets at the 2025 Spending Review. 

Planned 2027 aid spend is £9.38 billion, according to the Center for Global Development’s (CGD) estimate, equal to 0.3% of the March 2025 forecast. 

0.3% of the revised GNI forecast (£3,233 billion) is £9.70 billion. The shortfall is therefore £320 million.

The 0.29% and £320 million figures are ONE’s calculations from the OBR and CGD figures.

Refugee cost figures are from the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office’s final Statistics on International Development, published on Thursday, September 17. In-donor refugee costs were £2,403 million in 2025, or 18.4% of total UK aid of £13,095 million. The 13.2% OECD donor average is taken from the OECD’s preliminary 2025 official development assistance data, published in June 2026.

ICAI’s finding on the Home Office retention of in-donor refugee cost (IDRC) underspends is taken from its report (March 2026) on the management of the ODA spending target: https://icai.independent.gov.uk/review/management-of-the-official-development-assistance-spending-target/review/

About the ONE Campaign:

ONE is a global, nonpartisan organisation advocating for the investments needed to create economic opportunities and healthier lives in Africa. Since 2004, we have helped secure more than $1 trillion in new investments to build a safer, more prosperous world. Our trusted advocacy combines hard-hitting data, grassroots activism and political engagement to influence decision-makers and drive lasting change. Learn more at ONE.org