Today, the IMF released its flagship World Economic Outlook report where it downgraded its global growth projections down by almost 1% in 2022 from January’s projections and a slow down from 6.1% in 2021 to 3.6% in 2022 and 2023. Concerningly, the new projections also show a persistent divergence between emergent and developing economies and advanced economies. The report also warned that the impact of the war will contribute to forecast downgrades for 143 economies this year—accounting for 86 percent of global GDP.
In response to the new analysis, Edwin Ikhuoria, ONE’s Africa Executive Director, said:
“These projections show the continued devastating impact the pandemic and now the war in Ukraine are having on the entire world and all of our economies. As always, it is the world’s poorest countries that bear the brunt of the economic aftershocks of these crises.
“Combined with a spiralling debt crisis, rising inflation and skyrocketing food prices, this really is a matter of life and death for the most vulnerable people. These economic shocks will plunge millions more into extreme poverty, and increase the risk of hunger, poverty and disease. The effects on peoples’ lives and livelihoods will be deep and long term.
“The time to act is now. Global finance chiefs must urgently find a workable solution that meets the scale of the converging challenges facing the poorest countries. This means recycling at least $100 billion in Special Drawing Rights, fixing the Common Framework and leveraging new lending through multilateral development banks.”
Notes to editors
- The full IMF World Economic Outlook report is here
- The latest World Bank poverty figures estimate that the combination of the pandemic, growing inflationary pressures and the war in Ukraine will lead to an additional 75 million to 95 million people living in extreme poverty in 2022, compared to pre-pandemic projections.
- The IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings will take place from 18-24 April. ONE is urging global finance chiefs to address the economic impact of these converging crises – starting by protecting existing ODA budgets and ensuring any financial support for refugees and the Ukraine crisis comes in addition to existing aid allocation. ONE is also calling for G20 countries to urgently recycle at least $100 billion in Special Drawing Rights, fix the Common Framework and leverage new lending through multilateral development banks.
- Since 2020, ONE has been tracking the impact of the pandemic on people in the world’s poorest countries via its Africa Tracker and the ONE Ukraine tracker in order to pull together a series of datapoint to map out how these converging crises – conflict, pandemic, debt, climate – are having a devastating economic impact on people living in the world’s poorest countries.
- The price of key commodities like wheat is skyrocketing – it was 80% higher in March than 6 months earlier and food inflation across Africa had doubled from one year earlier to hit 10.6% in January 2022.
- Headline inflation in Africa had increased 50% in the last year to reach 6.5% in February 2022
- $285 billion needed in Africa to address the pandemic recovery between now and 2025
- $246.2 billion needed in Africa for debt repayment between now and 2025
- 881.8 million people globally are facing insufficient food consumption amid record-high food prices, 38% of which are in Africa