Public opinion in Canada has been on the move in 2025. Voter priorities are shifting quickly, and this election is evolving right alongside them. Political experts agree that the final outcome may come down to just a handful of highly competitive ridings! Even polling in those could change before Canadians head to the polls on April 28.
So, what exactly is a battleground riding?
These are electoral districts where two or more candidates are in a tight race, meaning voters in that area are almost evenly split. These ridings matter because even small shifts in support can tip the balance of power.
Let’s take a moment to revisit how Canada’s electoral system works. When we vote in a federal election, we’re not casting a ballot directly for a Prime Minister. Instead, the country is divided into electoral districts, or ridings, and each one elects a Member of Parliament (MP) to represent them in the House of Commons. The leader of the party with the most elected MPs usually becomes the Prime Minister.
That means the outcome in each riding matters a lot. Who forms Government and becomes Prime Minister could depend on as little as a dozen of individual races across the country.
This year, there are 343 seats up for election in the House of Commons. That’s five more than in the last federal election, after Elections Canada adjusted riding boundaries to reflect population changes.
To better understand how this might shape the results, we looked back at the 2021 election and applied the new boundaries. Our analysis dug into the 50 most competitive ridings, where the winning margins ranged from just 5.1 to 0.1 percentage points. Out of those, we are highlighting what could be the most interesting races this time.
Will Jagmeet Singh and Elizabeth May get re-elected? Their races are on the list!
- Nanaimo–Ladysmith (British Columbia): This riding has a history of close contests among the Green Party, NDP, and Conservatives. The Green Party’s leader, Elizabeth May, previously secured victories here, but recent polls indicate a three-way race, reflecting the area’s diverse political leanings.
- Kitchener Centre (Ontario): Traditionally a Liberal stronghold, Kitchener Centre has seen growing support for the Green Party. The upcoming election will test whether the Greens can capitalize on this momentum or if the Liberals will reclaim the seat. As of current polling, it is expected to be the only Green victory.
- Trois-Rivières (Quebec): This riding is a focal point for a three-way race among the Bloc Québécois, Liberals, and Conservatives. Its diverse electorate makes it a microcosm of Quebec’s broader political landscape, with each party vying for dominance.
- Peterborough–Kawartha (Ontario): Known as a bellwether riding, Peterborough–Kawartha often aligns with the party that forms the government. The Conservatives are aiming to flip this seat by emphasizing local economic issues and national concerns.
- Halifax (Nova Scotia): A traditionally Liberal seat, Halifax has seen increasing NDP support. The urban electorate’s priorities, including affordable housing and healthcare, are central to the campaigns, making this a closely watched contest.
- Edmonton Mill Woods (Alberta): This suburban riding has oscillated between the Liberals and Conservatives in recent elections. Economic concerns, particularly those related to the energy sector, play a significant role in shaping voter preferences here.
- Saint John–Rothesay (New Brunswick): Once a Conservative stronghold, this riding turned Liberal in the past two elections. The Conservatives are keen to reclaim it by addressing local issues such as job creation and economic development.
- Burnaby North–Seymour (British Columbia): This riding was NDP leader Jagmeet Singh‘s. Now, it is a hotspot for a tight race between the Liberals and NDP, with environmental policies and housing affordability being key voter concerns. The outcome here could reflect broader urban voting trends.
These are the places to watch. But political analysts caution that the list will likely shift as the campaign unfolds. That reflects a broader trend: voters are weighing a wide range of priorities this year, and party leaders will need to adapt if they want to earn public trust.
What does this mean for us at ONE?
In short, our voice matters. In an election defined by close races and changing opinions, we have a real opportunity to shape the conversation. Voters in competitive ridings are being watched closely by every campaign. That gives us power—power to highlight what’s at stake when it comes to global cooperation, economic opportunity, and Canada’s role in building a better world.
