{"id":167972,"date":"2026-09-17T17:28:38","date_gmt":"2026-09-17T17:28:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.one.org\/us\/?page_id=167972"},"modified":"2026-09-22T19:11:29","modified_gmt":"2026-09-22T19:11:29","slug":"us-africa-trade-opportunity","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.one.org\/us\/what-we-do\/the-issues\/economic-development\/us-africa-trade-opportunity\/","title":{"rendered":"A Stronger Hand: African Leverage, American Opportunity, and the $48 Billion at Stake"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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A Stronger Hand: African Leverage, American Opportunity, and the $48 Billion at Stake<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

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Executive Summary <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

African governments are asking more of their trading partners, and they have the leverage to insist. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

When the Democratic Republic of Congo suspended cobalt exports in February 2025, world prices more than doubled within the year. Zimbabwe has banned exports of unprocessed lithium. Ghana will stop exporting raw manganese, bauxite, and iron ore by 2030, and process at least half its cocoa at home. These are not requests. They are decisions by governments that know what their resources are worth. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two models are now on the table. China offers African countries broad access to its market but keeps the profitable processing at home. Africa buys roughly a quarter of its imports from China and sends back less than a fifth of its exports, most of it unprocessed. The US can offer something different: market access paired with value added in Africa. That is what African governments are asking for. China has shown little interest in providing it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The US is starting from behind. In 2000, it traded with Africa at three times China’s volume. Today China trades at four times the US volume. That is a complete reversal in 25 years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

New analysis in this report measures that gap. After accounting for the size of each economy, its population, and its distance from trading partners, the US exports 52% less to African countries than comparable markets elsewhere and imports 82% less from them. Chinese exports to those same countries run 15% higher than expected. Africa faces an American trade penalty and a Chinese trade premium. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are signs the market is moving. In 2025, the US sold more goods to Africa than ever before, $40 billion, up 25% on the year. Two-way trade reached $83 billion, the highest in 25 years. But China grew faster still, to a record $348 billion. Running harder is not the same as catching up. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The prize is large and getting larger. Africa is the fastest-growing region in the world, and by 2050 one in four people on the planet will be African. The continent holds the critical minerals US defense and energy supply chains depend on, including cobalt, lithium, manganese, and rare earths. Its expanding middle class is one of the fastest-growing consumer markets for American goods. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This report puts a number on the opportunity: $48 billion in additional two-way trade by 2035 if the US closes the gap in the markets where it currently under-trades. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The tools already exist. The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a trade preference measure, gives African producers preferential access to the US market. The Development Finance Corporation finances the ports, rail, and power that trade depends on. The Millennium Challenge Corporation helps governments build the customs and regulatory environment that makes it all work. Each solves a different problem. They are strongest used together. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The administration’s “Trade over Aid” framing offers a genuine opening, but the sequencing matters. Trade tools cannot substitute for health financing. Economies are not built by unhealthy populations, and the workforce that fills the factories and farms in this report has to survive childhood and stay well enough to work. The transition to self-reliance runs through health systems, not around them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Four steps would turn the framing into results. Use AGOA’s extension through 2028 to modernize it. Keep at least 25% of the DFC’s portfolio in Africa. Put more commercial officers on the ground. And rebuild the regional trade hubs that closed with USAID. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Africa is not waiting. The question is whether America shows up. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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China is ahead, but the race is not settled<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

At the start of this century, the US traded with Africa at more than three times China’s volume. That has reversed completely. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

US-Africa trade doubled between 2000 and 2025, from $41 billion to $83 billion. Over the same 25 years, China’s grew 29-fold, from $12 billion to $348 billion. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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