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Analysis of Potential Short Fall in Canada’s Global Fund Pledge

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The Global Fund is asking Canada for CA$1,200,000,000, a 30% increase from the Sixth Replenishment. The basis for this analysis is from The Global Fund’s modeled estimates on the impact of every US$100 million invested through the Global Fund. Estimates are derived from the modelling conducted to estimate impact of the Global Fund 2023-2025 Investment Case. To estimate the results of a given financial contribution to the Global Fund, first the current upfront disease split in the Global Fund allocation model is assumed, then results are derived by assuming a linear relationship between funding and results. An overhead count of 5% is deducted from the amount. A spot rate of 12 July 2022 has been used to calculate the conversion rate between pounds and dollars. All values are estimates and are subject to ForEx variations.

The Global Fund supports a range of interventions recommended by technical partners, which go beyond those presented in the results of this calculator.

The results reflect contributions of Global Fund investments to national programs and their results. The Global Fund advises that these results are achieved together with partners.

 

In addition:

The United States has pledged US$6 billion, but its contributions must be matched two to one to unlock the full funding. Any pledge below the Canada’s Global Fund Ask of CA$1,200,000,000 will leave money on the table. The below figures therefore represent the possible decrease in key results should Canada not meet its full pledge.

 

If Canada pledges…

$1,150,000,000 $1,100,000,000
$56,385,000 Total money left on the table, in USD $112,770,000 Total money left on the table, in USD
63,885 lives at risk 127,771 lives at risk
1,427,250 new infections possible across the three diseases 2,854,501 new infections possible across the three diseases
88,100 fewer people accessing antiretroviral therapy 176,200 fewer people accessing antiretroviral therapy
8,523 fewer mothers with access to medicine to prevent transmitting HIV to their babies 17,045 fewer mothers with access to medicine to prevent transmitting HIV to their babies
2,420,156 fewer people with access to HIV counselling and testing. 4,840,312 fewer people with access to HIV counselling and testing.
145,860 fewer members of key populations with access to prevention programs 291,719 fewer members of key populations with access to prevention programs
55,000 fewer people accessing TB treatment and care 110,000 fewer people accessing TB treatment and care
1,029,818 fewer people accessing TB screening 2,059,637 fewer people accessing TB screening
2,100 fewer people accessing treatment for multi-drug-resistant TB 4,201 fewer people accessing treatment for multi-drug-resistant TB
2,769 fewer HIV-positive TB patients accessing ART 5,537 fewer HIV-positive TB patients accessing ART
4,300,320 fewer mosquitoes nets distributed to protect children and families from malaria 8,600,641 fewer mosquitoes nets distributed to protect children and families from malaria
22,791 fewer seasonal chemoprevention services to protect children and families from malaria will be accessed 45,582 fewer seasonal chemoprevention services to protect children and families from malaria will be accessed
915,145 fewer people accessing malaria treatment and care 1,830,290 fewer people accessing malaria treatment and care

 

Source: ONE and Global Fund analysis

Seventh Replenishment Investment Case – The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria