{"id":161999,"date":"2021-12-03T21:23:37","date_gmt":"2021-12-03T21:23:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.one.org\/africa\/covids-aftershocks-the-variant-heard-round-the-world\/"},"modified":"2024-01-25T11:52:41","modified_gmt":"2024-01-25T11:52:41","slug":"omicron-covid-vaccines-africa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.one.org\/africa\/stories\/omicron-covid-vaccines-africa\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID’s Aftershocks: The variant heard \u2018round the world"},"content":{"rendered":"

Top news<\/h2>\n

Omicron rising<\/strong>: Health officials in South Africa\u00a0announced Wednesday<\/a>\u00a0that the Omicron variant has become the most prevalent version of COVID-19 in the country. The number of cases doubled from Tuesday, and test positivity climbed from 10.2% to 16.5%. In Gauteng province,\u00a0early analyses suggest<\/a>\u00a0that COVID-19 cases and test positivity are increasing faster than in previous waves. While\u00a0hospitalizations in the country are also rising<\/a>, it\u2019s too soon to draw conclusions about Omicron\u2019s transmissibility and lethality, and officials\u00a0are urging caution<\/a>. On Wednesday, the US\u00a0reported\u00a0its first Omicron case, increasing the number of countries with the new variant to 23 (and counting).<\/p>\n

Double or nothing:\u00a0<\/strong>The longer COVID-19 persists, the more it risks\u00a0unraveling decades of hard-fought progress<\/a>\u00a0against HIV\/AIDS, according to ONE\u2019s latest analysis. Lockdowns and social distancing measures limited Global Fund programs in 22% of their investee countries. An estimated 37 million people didn\u2019t get HIV tested who otherwise could have without the pandemic. And the number of people reached by HIV-prevention programs declined by 11%. Meanwhile, the economic impacts of COVID-19 \u2014 which pushed a jaw-dropping 97 million people into extreme poverty in 2020 \u2014 increase the risk of transmission for vulnerable groups. So if we want to keep making progress against HIV (which, hello, we definitely do), we need to stomp out COVID-19 ASAP. Learn more in ONE\u2019s brief,\u00a0The Increasingly Thin Red Line<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Inequality nexus:<\/strong>\u00a0UNAIDS warned this week that\u00a07.7 million people<\/a>\u00a0could die of AIDS over the next decade if leaders don\u2019t urgently address underlying inequalities. Tackling vaccine inequity\u00a0would be a great place for them to start<\/a>: People with HIV are twice as likely to die of COVID-19, yet 70% of people living with the disease are in sub-Saharan Africa, where less than 5% of the population has received a first dose.<\/p>\n

Aspen for it:\u00a0<\/strong>In a potentially\u00a0\u201ctransformative moment\u201d<\/a>\u00a0for greater COVID-19 vaccine equity, South Africa\u2019s Aspen Pharmacare may become the first African company to package and sell COVID-19 vaccines. Their deal with Johnson & Johnson, which should be finalized in early 2022, would expand upon its existing vaccine \u201cfinish and fill\u201d production agreement \u2014 but with an added 100 million doses made monthly that Aspen will sell directly to African countries. Excited? So are we. But this good news has its limits: It does not include technology transfer, which would enable Aspen to make its own drug substance. And, it\u2019s too soon to know J&J\u2019s efficacy against the Omicron variant, or whether this deal would cover\u00a0potential versions of the vaccine<\/a>\u00a0that could be made to counter variants.<\/p>\n

Treaty yourself:\u00a0<\/strong>WHO members agreed this week to begin talks on a pandemic treaty, which would aim to ensure a coherent, equitable, and prompt response to future pandemics. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called it\u00a0\u201ca once-in-a-generation opportunity.\u201d<\/a>\u00a0The treaty was once a mere twinkle in the eye of global health experts \u2014 but Omicron has created renewed urgency for a legally binding agreement. However, the US and others oppose a mechanism with legal obligations \u2014 so achieving consensus around a strong treaty among the WHO\u2019s 194 member states will prove challenging. South Africa\u2019s effective early-warning system, which brought Omicron to the world\u2019s attention,\u00a0exemplifies the benefits<\/a>\u00a0of a robust global disease radar.<\/p>\n

Shame the blame game<\/strong>: There\u2019s\u00a0rightfully been blowback<\/a>\u00a0against the world\u2019s knee-jerk reaction to blame South Africa for discovering and reporting the Omicron variant, and for slapping travel bans on African countries. \u201cThe people of Africa\u00a0cannot be blamed<\/a>\u00a0for the immorally low level of vaccinations available to them. Nor should they be collectively punished for identifying and sharing crucial science and health information with the world,\u201d reprimanded UN Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres. Ghana\u2019s Health Minister Kwaku Agyeman-Manu\u00a0was more pointed<\/a>: \u201cThese measures are not based on science. They smack of racism and xenophobia.\u201d As it turns out, they\u2019re also counterproductive: The WHO is blaming travel bans on South Africa\u00a0for delaying laboratory samples<\/a>\u00a0that could inform research into the new variant. Well done, everyone (slow clap).<\/p>\n

Mandate fever:<\/strong>\u00a0Meanwhile, South Africa is\u00a0considering a vaccine mandate<\/a>\u00a0for certain activities. Like elsewhere in the world, there\u2019s been pushback against a mandate: South African students fiercely rejected their university\u2019s recent vaccine mandate,\u00a0claiming scientific and ethical<\/a>\u00a0concerns. And the Afriforum\u00a0civil society group<\/a>\u00a0questioned the legality of a national mandate.\u00a0Ghana<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0Kenya<\/a>\u00a0will implement mandates in the coming weeks \u2014 but as South Africa has a much higher vaccination rate at\u00a024%<\/a>, it arguably has the best shot at effectively implementing one.<\/p>\n

Something even worse?<\/strong>\u00a0Experts at OECD are saying Omicron risks intensifying global imbalances, boosting inflation, and threatening a global recovery. Laurence Boone, the OECD\u2019s chief economist, said the variant could delay\u00a0\u201ca return to normality or something even worse.\u201d<\/a>\u00a0In turn, and with an unequal economic recovery (read: low-income countries will\u00a0continue to be hit hardest<\/a>), the variant could also\u00a0worsen global supply chain issues<\/a>. The\u00a09 in 10 Brits<\/a>\u00a0who are worried that supply chains are permanently broken might be on to something.<\/p>\n

Affronted<\/strong>:\u00a0Three-quarters of African health workers<\/a>\u00a0are not fully vaccinated against COVID-19, compared to 80% in high-income countries. This injustice makes the already difficult jobs of frontline healthcare workers more dangerous, and exacerbates severe shortages of healthcare workers. In South Africa, more than\u00a01,300 health workers died of COVID-19<\/a>\u00a0in the past year, and the country was already\u00a020 times below<\/a>\u00a0the recommended benchmark of healthcare workers (10.9 per 1,000 people). While all African countries prioritize healthcare workers in their vaccination plans,\u00a0this is stymied<\/a>\u00a0by the limited availability of vaccination services, plus concerns over its safety and side effects.<\/p>\n

Donation etiquette:<\/strong>\u00a0COVAX shipped\u00a011 million COVID-19 vaccine doses<\/a>\u00a0in 24 hours this week, setting a new record. Let\u2019s hope the doses weren\u2019t a surprise: The African Union and key partners, including COVAX,\u00a0are urging donating countries<\/a>\u00a0to ensure a 10-week shelf life and 4-week delivery notice on all vaccines. This is among other provisions that are striking in their obviousness (i.e. no vaccines without syringes to administer them). The set of reasonable requests was spurred by the \u201cad hoc\u201d nature of vaccine donations, which makes it very difficult for countries to adequately plan and implement vaccination campaigns.<\/p>\n

Tough pill to swallow<\/strong>: Merck\u2019s revolutionary COVID-19 pill, Molnupiravir, is\u00a0only 30% effective<\/a>, dramatically lower than early clinical trial results. In other not-so-good news, Regeneron announced that its widely used monoclonal antibody treatment may be\u00a0less effective<\/a>\u00a0against the Omicron variant. The treatment has not been studied using the variant\u2019s full sequence, however, and more data is expected by the end of the month.<\/p>\n

Continuing virtually:<\/strong>\u00a0This week\u2019s\u00a02021 Africa Investment Forum (AIF)<\/a>\u00a0was postponed until further notice due to growing Omicron-related health and safety concerns. This is a blow to African businesses looking for recovery capital: The event is Africa\u2019s premier investment marketplace, and\u00a0the forum had 118 deals in its pipeline<\/a>, valued at over $110 billion. While stunted, investment conversations will continue without the forum.<\/p>\n

The numbers<\/h2>\n