The annual DATA Report strives for cold calculation. It represents an attempt to track down and present the facts, brutal, honest and clinical as they are. But cold, hard facts can leave you just that - cold. The big promises and grand ambition from 2005 are only slowly being delivered, and the energy and enthusiasm that welcomed the Gleneagles commitments in 2005 could easily start to wane. Thankfully that energy and dynamism isn't waning where it really matters - in Africa. Africans are hard at work putting the modest increases that have been delivered to work. They're busy proving time and again that success is possible, that the promises that the G8 made, when delivered, will be put to use to achieve their intended outcome - saving lives, reducing extreme poverty. These successes should inspire us all to deliver fully that which has been pledged.
This 2008 report comes out at a pivotal moment. Just before the EU leaders analyse their own record in Brussels, just before France takes over the Presidency of the EU, just as the G8 are about to convene in Japan, and amidst a serious debate about the future of US foreign policy and the role of development therein.
This report is being released at the midway point of two efforts to realise real change for the world's poor: the longer-term effort to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) between 2000 and 2015, as agreed in the Millennium Declaration of 2000, and the short-term effort to get Africa on track to achieve these goals between 2005 and 2010, as agreed and pledged by the G8 and EU in 2005.
Above all, it is a year in which the growing body of evidence for what is possible on the ground has become impossible to ignore. Last year DATA hailed the fact that 1.3 million Africans living with HIV/AIDS were on life-saving antiretroviral drugs - just one year later, that number has surpassed 2.1 million. Last year DATA celebrated the fact that 20 million more children were in school since 1999 - today that total has grown to 29 million. But there have been gains in other sectors as well. Though still too high, child mortality rates have declined. Rwanda and Ethiopia have posted significant reductions in the incidence of malaria, by 66% and 51% respectively. Almost 26 million children received a package of basic immunisations between 2001 and 2006. And whereas there were only three democracies in Africa in 1989, that number had increased six-fold by 2005.
Such statistics are not exceptions: they have begun to weave a broader story of the potential in Africa. There are currently 18 countries on the continent (not including oil producers) whose economies have been growing at an average of 5.5% per year for the past ten years. What goes into those growth rates is a complicated combination of factors, but many of the critical elements highlighted in this report are present. Eleven of the 18 countries are democracies, 13 of them have reached HIPC completion point and another is at decision point. These 18 countries put almost 14 million more children into primary school between 1999 and 2005, have increased the percentage of their people with access to clean water and have reduced their child mortality rates; access to ARVs and bed nets has increased as well.
These are the stories that must be kept in mind while reading The DATA Report. This is what Africa has accomplished with the modest assistance that has been delivered thus far. This success gives broken commitments no place to hide - no excuse that these programmes don't work, no excuse that the money is wasted. It starkly shows that, if commitments are broken, it would be the result of broken will. Moreover, it places a clear spotlight on the decision facing the G8. They can either choose to build on the successes to date and initiate an honest effort to meet their commitments, or they can choose not to and instead continue down the path of incrementalism. Incrementalism will continue to help some people in Africa, but would be a disaster for most. It wouldn't solve the food emergency or help the poorest people adapt to climate change that they didn't bring about; it wouldn't stem the ongoing spread of communicable diseases such as HIV/AIDS; and it certainly won't bring about the ultimate goal - help for Africa to 'build the successful future all of us want to see'.