Unconventional Wisdom

May 11th, 2008 at 1:01 am

Paul Collier, a development economist and author of The Bottom Billion, recently wrote two op-eds with some unconventional wisdom. Collier has done pioneering  research on the costs and causes of conflicts in developing countries, with the goal of trying to prevent (and end) civil wars like the situations in Darfur and the Congo.

He surveys that research with Bjorn Lomborg in this article.

And like most economists he has some strong opinions about globalization, trade, and now the world food crisis. He offers his insights with this op-ed in The Times.

I read a few of the comments on The Times op-ed, and I was shocked at how many conceited people were convinced the food crises is caused by “overpopulation” and can’t be solved by producing more food and getting it to people, because they think that will just lead to the recipients having more kids and more mouths to feed. Some economists call that hypothetical situation a Malthusian trap.

The problem with the theory is that less poverty is correlated with reduced population growth. Correlation does not prove causation, but most experts are convinced reducing poverty is our best chance to curb population growth. So, if we want to combat overpopulation we have to combat poverty, the food crisis, and high child morality. Of course this means not just giving food aid, but promoting agricultural development, infrastructure development, lowering child morality, and providing access to family planning services

I highly recommend Collier book for its treatment of the resource curse, conflict, and candidate discussion on the efficacy of aid and trade, even though I’m not convinced by some of his arguments.