In today’s New York Times David Brook’s commented the on the presidential candidates, the recent passage of the Farm Bill, and ethanol subsidy policies.

“Obama’s vote may help him win Iowa, but it will lead to higher global food prices and more hunger in Africa. Moreover, it raises questions about how exactly he expects to bring about the change that he promises. [. . .]

John McCain opposed the farm bill. In an impassioned speech on Monday, he declared: ‘It would be hard to find any single bill that better sums up why so many Americans in both parties are so disappointed in the conduct of their government, and at times so disgusted by it.’”

ONE advocated for two amendments to the Farm Bill to reduce wasteful subsidies that put impoverished farmers at a disadvantage. For the 1st, Lugar-Lautenberg, all three major candidates missed the vote. For the 2nd, Grassly-Dorgan, Clinton and Obama voted for it while McCain missed the vote.

I did some research to verify Brook’s claims and while he simplified the issues it is true that Obama has been a pandered on corn ethanol for a long time, but recently admitted that maybe we need to change direction. McCain has been a long-standing opponent of corporate welfare in general, including ethanol subsidies, even according to the opposition party.

A research team from the Harvard School of Public Health (HSPH) recently published a paper in the journal Science calling for a “dramatic shift” in how HIV prevention is funded.

The BBC did a story here.
Specifically, they cited evidence that male circumcision is effective and underutilized and that a focus on reducing having multiple-concurrent partners should be a focus. The theory is that scientists know that people are most infectious right after getting HIV and if they have multiple partners within a few days or weeks, they are very likely to spread the disease which will then be quickly spread to the newly infected partners’ partner.

This is the essense of a “generalized epidemic,” and the theory helps explain why AIDS is not more common in the US, where people tend to be in a relationship with one person at a time.

(Note: I was raised Catholic and reading the previous paragraph made me wince a bit and my mind drift toward thoughts like “maybe if they were more moral they would have less AIDS.” But before anyone jumps to conclusions about sexual morality I want to note that I surmise infidelity is nevertheless more common in the U.S.)

My understanding is that these researchers are right about the science, but I disagree about their politics. They go about attacking people for wanting to spend a paltry  amount of money on HIV/AIDS treatment and vertical programs that target this single disease. And their criticisms are right. But the right approach in politics and in a movement is to argue passionatly to build up your ideas, not to tear other’s down.

The leader of the study, Dr. Daniel Halperin, also seemed misinformed on what each candidate has pledged to do in terms of global health, parading one candidate’s plan to spend more money on TB and malaria too, when in fact his position was not clear and other candidates had used similar talking points.

A friend recommended this article from a few years back about students working to make essential medicines–namely antiretrovirals for AIDS–available in Africa.

Amy Kapczynsk, a first year law student at Yale, was a leader in the movement and became a founding member of Universities Allied for Essential Medicines or UAEM and the story profiles her work. She is now a law professor at UC Berkeley I’ve been told.

Another founding member of UAEM recently spoke at my university and described some lessons for student activism he learned from their work:

1. Make friends with influential people — you need to build
   a coalition university-wide, not just with students
2. Contact the media - school newspaper are always looking for something to do a story about
3. Mobilize students - start a petition or letter campaign for something concrete and try to get other student groups to sign on and get their members to
4. Strategic Research - know the issue! This is what the ONE Campus blog should hopefully help with

Paul Collier, a development economist and author of The Bottom Billion, recently wrote two op-eds with some unconventional wisdom. Collier has done pioneering  research on the costs and causes of conflicts in developing countries, with the goal of trying to prevent (and end) civil wars like the situations in Darfur and the Congo.

He surveys that research with Bjorn Lomborg in this article.

And like most economists he has some strong opinions about globalization, trade, and now the world food crisis. He offers his insights with this op-ed in The Times.

I read a few of the comments on The Times op-ed, and I was shocked at how many conceited people were convinced the food crises is caused by “overpopulation” and can’t be solved by producing more food and getting it to people, because they think that will just lead to the recipients having more kids and more mouths to feed. Some economists call that hypothetical situation a Malthusian trap.

The problem with the theory is that less poverty is correlated with reduced population growth. Correlation does not prove causation, but most experts are convinced reducing poverty is our best chance to curb population growth. So, if we want to combat overpopulation we have to combat poverty, the food crisis, and high child morality. Of course this means not just giving food aid, but promoting agricultural development, infrastructure development, lowering child morality, and providing access to family planning services

I highly recommend Collier book for its treatment of the resource curse, conflict, and candidate discussion on the efficacy of aid and trade, even though I’m not convinced by some of his arguments.

Last week Western Kentucky University celebrated winning the Campus Challenge in grand style with concert featuring Army of Me, Gorgie James, and Martin Royal.

I’ve uploaded a couple of pictures from the show and you can find more in the Flickr pool.

NASA has posted these shots of the Burma/Myanmar coast before and after Monday’s cyclone.

From NASA:

“The entire coastal plain is flooded in the May 5 image. The fallow agricultural areas appear to have been especially hard hit. For example, Yangôn (population over 4 million) is almost completely surrounded by floods. Several large cities (population 100,000–500,000) are in the affected area. Muddy runoff colors the Gulf of Martaban turquoise.”

From the AFP:

Around 5,000 square kilometres (1,930 square miles) remain underwater, and more than a million homeless need emergency relief, a UN spokesman said.

“The bottle-neck (in aid) is getting it out in the delta. That needs boats, helicopters, trucks,” said Richard Horsey, a Bangkok-based spokesman with the UN’s Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs…

Food prices in Myanmar, already one of the most impoverished nations in the world, have soared. A bag of rice now costs 40,000 kyats (35 dollars) in the commercial hub Yangon, up from 25,000 last week.

Frustrated aid agencies said they are still being denied permission to enter Myanmar and use their experience and expertise to ensure the right aid gets to the neediest places as soon as possible.”

-Virginia Simmons

Cross posted from the ONE Blog.

Indiana and North Carolina went to the polls yesterday and proved once again that Americans are passionate about our Democratic process. Turnout levels were record highs and included an estimated 30,000 ONE members who proved once again that every vote counts.*

Senator Clinton won a surprise victory in Indiana in a photo finish and Senator Obama met expectations with a clear victory in North Carolina. Senator McCain, the Republican nominee, won the Republican primaries by large margins.

All three candidates went On the Record last year with ONE, discussing some of their ideas about how to lead in the fight against global poverty. Watch the videos if you haven’t seen them.

* - Apologies to voters in Florida and Michigan. I’m a Floridan, I feel your pain.

Most people know heart disease is by far the leading killer of Americans–taking millions of lives each year. But most heart attacks and strokes occur in older people, sparing children in all but rare circumstances. And while heart attacks sometimes afflict working-age people, hospitals have become very good at treatment and prolonging lives.

Most people don’t, however, realize that heart disease is prevalent in low-income countries too. A new study found that 80% of deaths from high blood pressure were in low and middle income countries last year.* In human terms that means millions of people are dying from preventable disease in low income countries, creating a burden of disease that rivals AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and depression.

Read about it in the New York Times.

* - I found trying to put these statistics in context bewildering, but I didn’t want to leave things without context. So, for context, the best I have come to understand is something to the extent of “The point is that millions of people die in poor countries from heart disease because they have no hospitals or doctors to get help from. And that is wrong.”

CBS’ 60 Minutes aired a story on Dr. Paul Farmer yesterday. Farmer is a a global health icon and someone I have a deep respect for. I think every member of ONE should watch this video and share it with their friends, because, to paraphrase Farmer, his work “shows what can be done.”

This movement for ending poverty is bombarded by critics who say it can’t be done. They say poverty is here to stay. People will always starve to death. It’s normal. its inevitable. Why even bother to try?

After a while it almost seems to make sense–that is, until you realize that one organization, founded by a few dedicated people, led by one man, has saved so many people that they are “too numerous to count.”

If the story inspired you I highly recommend Tracy Kidder’s biography on Dr. Farmer, Mountains Beyond Mountains. It only costs about $7 and if that’s too much e-mail me and I’ll mail you my copy (delete the z’s on the e-mail).

(If you watched the video and were curious about “the bus” and “the boat” and how he went from being a kid from the middle of nowhere to a Harvard professor, check out this story based on interviews with the people he grew up with.)

Last Thursday President Bush called for spending $770 million more on food aid, just hours after ONE delivered its petition from over 100,000 Americans calling for action. Certainly ONE cannot claim sole credit, the media coverage definitly put the focus on this issue, but Americans clamoring for action and continued pressure to do more for the poor were definite factors in this new pledge.

As a math and economic person, I like to try to quantify the value of these petitions and this movement to show the value that each member of ONE, the value of ONE voice, in this movement. So the most basic calculation is just divide 770,000,000 by 100,000 to get $7,700 per petitioner. Not bad! Of course, there are more than a million members of ONE who have helped build this movement, so crediting a million members of this movement or even 10 million members of this movement to account for unofficial members and you get $770 or $77 per signature.

The last, and smallest, figure is probably the best estimate–but consider it compared to the value of alternative uses of your time. You might get $2 per person at a bake sale or $10 per person at a fund raiser. By getting 10 friends to join ONE and have each get 5 friends to join one, you have generated $4,697 worth of food aid. Of course, it’s best to just try two or more of these worthwhile activities! (I’ve worked on all 3.)

If the conventional wisdom is correct, I lost 3/4ths of the readers with those two calculations. But if you are still reading check out these links:

Bush proposes $770 million for world food crisis - Yahoo News

Transcript of Bush’s remarks - Washington Post

and a Video of Bush’s speech - Washington Post