From TICAD to the G8 Summit: An Analysis of Japan's Committment to Africa

2008 is no ordinary year for Japan. The fourth Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD IV) and Hokkaido Toyako G8 Summit have Japan leading the world in a year that marks the halfway point to both the Millennium Development Goals and the G8 Gleneagles promises to Africa.  As the 2008 DATA Report highlights, the G8 are dangerously behind on these landmark commitments. Japan, a country known for keeping its promises, has the opportunity - and responsibility - to get donors back on track.

2008 also sees millions of Africans being priced out of the market for food in a world of plenty. Warming climate trends and the global food price crisis are demonstrating how gains in poverty reduction can be quickly erased and how climatically vulnerable regions can become destabilized. In 2008, G8 countries, led by Japan, can lead the world in an effort to lift millions of people out of extreme poverty and beat hunger in Africa through a visionary but practical plan to catalyze an agricultural revolution in Africa.

This paper provides an analysis of Japan's Official Development Assistance (ODA) flows to sub-Saharan Africa, looking at progress on its 2005 G8 commitment to Africa and its recent TICAD announcement in May 2008 to double bilateral aid to Africa by 2012. It also provides a brief analysis of Japan's other development commitments from TICAD.

Japan's 2005 ODA Commitment to Africa

The 2008 DATA Report reveals that Japan has delivered its 2005 commitment to double bilateral assistance to Africa (when analyzed in 2004 prices). However, this commitment was not ambitious: Despite reaching its 2007 target, Japan's aid level in 2007, in real terms, was still less than its ODA to Africa in 1989/90. Moreover, Japan's total level of ODA for Africa actually declined by 8% between 2006 and 2007. Even though bilateral assistance increased between 2006 and 2007, multilateral assistance to Africa was cut by 48%.

It is important to note that determining whether Japan met its 2005 commitment depends on whether progress is measured in current or constant prices. If progress is measured in constant 2004 prices, they indeed met their commitment in 2007. According to OECD figures, Japan's bilateral ODA to sub-Saharan Africa in 2007 was $1.161 billion (in 2004 prices), thus surpassing the 2007 target for bilateral assistance of $1.122 billion. Alternatively, the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs publishes aid figures in current prices. Using this method, OECD figures show Japan fell short of its target, with bilateral ODA reaching only $1.04 billion in 2007, thus falling $20 million short of the target. Measuring progress in constant prices ensures that inflation does not erode the value the commitment. Because Japan has experienced negative inflation in the past few years, progress measured in constant prices actually results in a higher figure for ODA than if it is measured in current prices.

Japan's ODA Flows to Sub Saharan Africa 2004-2007

Japan's 2008 TICAD Commitment to Africa

More than 40 African heads of state gathered in Yokohama, Japan from 28-30 May for TICAD IV. The conference on African development is hosted by Japan every five years and is particularly significant this year, as it came just over a month before the G8 Summit in Hokkaido Japan on 7-9 July. At TICAD, Japan made several announcements about its future assistance to Africa.

The headline announcement coming out of TICAD was that Japan would double its average ODA to Africa over 2003-2007 (excluding debt relief) over the next five years (2008-2012). While this announcement earned headlines in the media, a close analysis reveals that it was not ambitious. Similar to its 2005 commitment, Japan's TICAD commitment will only double bilateral aid to Africa, which represents only half of its total aid to the region. This announcement translates to an increase of only $900 million over the next five years. If Japan had announced a true doubling - doubling bilateral and multilateral assistance - its assistance would increase by a more significant $1.8 billion by 2012-a commitment more in line with a G8 leadership commitment.

DATA and ONE are encouraging Japan to strengthen its new ODA commitment in advance of the G8 by committing to at least double multilateral and bilateral ODA to Africa between 2008 and 2012 with a strong interim target of no less than $1 billion in total additional assistance by 2010. This additional aid can be used to address health systems and child and maternal health, lead a global effort to enhance agriculture productivity, and continue to build on commitments to proven, effective multilateral instruments, such as the Global Fund, the African Development Bank and the World Bank's International Development Association (IDA). 

Doubling Japan's Total ODA to Africa (2008-2012)

*This table uses $900 million as the 2007 bilateral baseline figure in order to remain consistent with the baseline used by Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA). MOFA has stated that $900m represents Japan's average bilateral aid to sub-Saharan Africa between 2003-2007. ONE was not able to replicate this average using the official data that Japan reports to the OECD DAC.

Other TICAD Commitments

In addition to the overall ODA commitment, Japan also made specific commitments on infrastructure and investment, agriculture, health and education:

Infrastructure and Investment: Japan made important announcements on infrastructure and investment at TICAD, announcing $4 billion in low interest loans to Africa for roads and other infrastructure development. Prime Minister Fukuda also announced a $2.5 billion facility within the Japan Bank for International Co-operation (JBIC) to finance investments by Japanese companies in Africa.

Agriculture: Japan announced it would help African nations double rice production within a decade. This will be achieved in part by increasing the use of NERICA, or New Rice for Africa, which was developed by crossing high-yield Asian rice with African rice, and can grow in arid climates. Japan will also support the development of irrigation systems, improved crop varieties and technology application.

There is still more Japan can do to enhance agricultural productivity and protect the poorest from the food price crisis. The Hokkaido Summit should endorse a centralized funding mechanism to direct much-needed investment to farmers in Africa and help to spur agricultural productivity. Increased public and private investment in research, inputs such as fertilizer and seeds, agricultural extension services, and infrastructure will help vulnerable African countries to build food supplies and increase agricultural yields.  Japan should also work with other bilateral and multilateral donors to invest in social protection programs including cash transfers, school feeding and food for work programs that will reach vulnerable populations including women and small children. 

Health:

• Global Fund: Japan announced a new contribution to the Global Fund of $560 million in "the coming years." If this is interpreted to mean 2009 and 2010, then the contribution amounts to an additional $100 million more per year. This announcement did not meet expectations; the Global Fund has asked donors to double their support in the next three years to meet increased demand. A true doubling of Japan's current support would amount to $1 billion over three years.

• Health systems: Japan committed to improve 1,000 hospitals and health centers throughout Africa and train 100,000 health workers. While this support is welcome, the announcement did not include any financial targets for achieving these goals and it is not clear if Japan's support for health workers will include support for salaries and retention.

Education: Japan will construct 1,000 schools in sub-Saharan Africa and train 300,000 teachers in math and science over the next five years, 100,000 of which will be in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite being co-chair of the Fast Track Initiative, Japan did not announce any contribution to the under-funded Catalytic Fund or acknowledge the overall $1 billion shortfall in 2008 for FTI endorsed countries.

For More Information:

• 2008 DATA Report: www.thedatareport.org
• Turning Consensus into Action: Fighting Poverty and Disease at TICAD IV and the Toyako-Hokkaido G8 Summit: www.one.org/jp