Climate and Development

The Challenge

The impact of climate change presents another hurdle to the fight against extreme poverty and disease. Experts predict that in many sub-Saharan African countries, climate change could mean more frequent drought and floods, water scarcity and increased health challenges like under-nutrition. These new challenges will not only make achieving the Millennium Development Goals more difficult, they could also threaten some of the progress already made in fighting extreme poverty and disease.

Reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the United Nations Development Program provide the first startling details of the devastating impact climate change could have on African development. Projected impacts include the following:

• Decline in agricultural productivity: The areas suitable for agriculture, the length of growing seasons and the yield potential of food staples are all projected to decline. Some African countries could see agricultural yields decrease by 50% by 2050 and crop net revenues could fall by as much as 90% by 2100.

• Increased water stress: Changing climate patterns will have important implications for water availability in Africa. By 2020, an additional 75-250 million people in Africa are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change.

• Rising sea levels: Across the globe, sea levels could rise rapidly with accelerated ice sheet disintegration. In Africa, highly productive ecosystems, which form the basis for important economic activities such as tourism and fisheries, are located in coastal zones. In total, 70 million people and 30% of the Africa's coastal infrastructure could face the risk of coastal flooding by 2080 because of rising sea levels.

• Risks to human health: Climate change will affect human health through variables such as changes in temperature, exposure to natural disasters, access to food and air quality. Previously malaria-free highland areas in Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Burundi could experience modest incursions of malaria by the 2050s, with conditions for transmission becoming highly suitable by the 2080s. In total, an additional 260-320 million people worldwide could be living in malaria-infested areas by 2080.

• Threats to ecosystems and biodiversity: Changes induced by climate change are likely to result in species range shifts and changes in tree productivity, adding further stress to forest ecosystems. Studies predict that 25-40% of mammal species such as zebra could become endangered or extinct by 2080.

The Opportunity

The world is striving towards a global climate deal in 2009. Industrialized countries are historically responsible for the bulk of green house gas emissions. However, meaningful reductions in emissions today can only be achieved through an approach that includes emerging markets. In addition, developing regions like sub-Saharan Africa, must be enabled to embark on a low carbon growth path as they continue to grow their economic base and energy supply. Due to their historic contributions, industrialized countries have an obligation to support Africa and other regions in this endeavor. Moreover, it is in their interest to do so: developing and emerging countries have signaled they would agree to a global climate deal if they are supported. In addition, there are untapped opportunities for partnering with sub-Saharan Africa to stem further declines.  Africa's vast rainforests and natural resources could be invested in through re-forestation and agro-forestry programs to provide sustainable livelihoods and carbon storage/sequestration.

Responding to climate change requires action on two fronts: firstly "adaptation" to the consequences of current and future climate change and secondly "mitigation" of climate change by drastically reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, avoiding future emissions in developing countries and ensure carbon sinks, like the rainforest are preserved.

First, under the "polluter pays" principle that is widely recognized in wealthy countries, the G8 should provide financing to help the poorest and most vulnerable communities adapt to climate change. The term adaptation encompasses a broad range of responses that help governments, communities and individuals cope with the impact of climate change. Ultimately, meeting the Millennium Development Goals is the best way for poor countries to adapt to climate change. In the immediate-term, adaptation approaches should focus on climate-proofing physical infrastructure as well as reducing the vulnerability of people through social protection programs. Agricultural investments including weather forecasting, improved irrigation and training are another key component. The incremental risks associated with climate change are pushing up the costs of achieving the Millennium Development Goals. For this reason, the G8 countries must ensure that resources for adaptation are additional to their long standing development assistance commitments so as not to divert resources from poverty reduction to adaptation. Estimates of costs for adaptation vary, from $28 billion - $86 billion.

Second, mitigation initiatives such as the European "cap-and trade" system have already been implemented and should be expanded and adopted by other industrialized countries. Under the EU's scheme, governments auction emission certificates to emitters e.g. power plants. Germany has already been tapping these extra revenues to support international climate programs. Other G8 countries should follow suit by using these or other resources to support mitigation in both emerging and developing countries in three ways: Firstly, the G8 should work closely with developing countries and the private sector to chart a low-carbon development pathway through the use of energy efficient technologies and renewable energy resources. Secondly, Africa's vast rainforests and natural resources could be invested in through re-forestation and agro-forestry programs to provide sustainable livelihoods and carbon storage/sequestration. Thirdly, Africa could eventually provide geothermal and solar thermal energy not only for its own energy supply but for export to help industrialized countries achieve their reduction targets. The UN's Human Development Report has called for the creation of a Climate Change Mitigation Facility to provide $25-50 billion annually in financing for low-carbon energy investments in developing countries.