The United Nations is reporting today that approximately 2,971 people in Zimbabwe have now died from a cholera outbreak that has afflicted the country. We’ll keep you posted on this and other developments in Zimbabwe here.

Excerpts below, full report here

The U.N. humanitarian office said 2,817 new cases were reported Monday, taking the cumulative number of infections since the outbreak began to 56,123.

The global body said more than one person in every 20 who contract cholera in Zimbabwe is dying of the disease. The usual mortality rate for large-scale outbreaks is 1 in 100.

The outbreak began in August and spread rapidly because of Zimbabwe’s poorly maintained infrastructure and crumbling health care system.

-Chris Scott

As we continue to monitor the situation in Zimbabwe, there are a couple developments today worth noting:

Word has come that South Africa will host a regional summit on Zimbabwe. This announcement follows a failure in talks between President Robert Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai on forming a power-sharing government.

“The summit of heads of state and government is expected to be attended by all (Southern African Development Community) member states,” the South African Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Zimbabwe is a member of SADC and the statement said the MDC was also expected to attend the summit.

South African President Kgalema Motlanthe, Mozambique’s President Armando Guebuza and Thabo Mbeki, SADC mediator and former South African president, met the two Zimbabwean sides in Harare last Monday but no agreement was reached.

A unity government is seen as the best chance of preventing total collapse in once prosperous Zimbabwe, where prices double every day and more than 2,000 people have died in a cholera epidemic.

Last week the Executive Director of UNICEF Anne M. Veneman visited Zimbabwe to meet with Mugabe and other key stakeholders The discussions “underscored the humanitarian impact on women and children.”

“The cholera outbreak is the tip of the iceberg,” said Veneman, the first head of a UN agency to visit the country in three years. “The economy in Zimbabwe is crumbling, with the highest inflation rate in the world at 231 million percent. Over half the population is receiving food aid, health centers have closed and when the school term starts there is no guarantee that there will be enough teachers.”

The Executive Director visited a cholera treatment clinic and a care center that is part of a UNICEF supported program that helps 250,000 orphans and vulnerable children.

-Chris Scott

As we continue to keep you updated on the volatile situation in Zimbabwe a report released this week by Roll Back Malaria warns that while the threat of cholera remains in the public eye, a malaria outbreak is very possible. With resources being diverted to fight the rise in cholera deaths, Zimbabwe remains more susceptible to malaria deaths.

Excerpts below, full piece here

[Herve Verhoosel of the RBM Partnership] said that “the surveillance system which helped to monitor and control epidemics has broken down throughout much of the country.

“Large malaria outbreaks could therefore take hold rapidly and claim many victims before the necessary steps can be put in place to halt the spread of the disease.

-Chris Scott

Over three weeks have passed since Zimbabwe’s schools were scheduled to reopen after the Christmas break, raising fears that 2009 will be another lost year for education in Zimbabwe. While the government is saying the extra time is needed for teachers to mark last year’s exams, many teachers are refusing to return to work until the government agrees to pay them in foreign currency, as the Zimbabwean currency has become completely worthless. Teachers are demanding US$2,200 a month before they resume work, a demand that was rejected by the government after being put forward earlier this week by a coalition of NGOs and teachers unions.

From the Zimbabwe Standard:

Prospects that the situation would improve next term have been dampened by the prolonged delays in the formation of a new government, analysts said. “The outlook is gloomy,” said ZIMTA(Zimbabwe Teachers’ Association) acting chief executive officer, Sifiso Ndlovu, who confirmed the latest demands by teachers.

“If the political environment does not change in the few coming days, schools are unlikely to reopen next term.” Teacher organisations estimate that up to 30 000 teachers resigned from government to seek employment in neighbouring countries while others turned to the informal sector as the authorities continued to ignore pleas for better pay.

Meanwhile, private schools have been threatened with arrest by the government if they open their doors as scheduled on Tuesday.

The delay follows a tumultuous 2008 school year that was cut short in October, when schools had only been opened for a total of 23 uninterrupted days. This is compared to relatively high attendance rates only a year ago- a recent UNICEF report found that school attendance in Zimbabwe had dropped from 85% in 2007 to 20% by the third term of 2008. The drop was largely a result of the teacher shortages, which began last March after teachers started striking against poor pay and political intimidation around the elections. Attendance rates are also low because children are needed to help parents look for food or work amidst the ongoing economic turmoil.

After years of surviving despite a crumbling economy and autocratic rule, the most recent political upheaval may have struck a final blow to Zimbabwe’s education system, which was once the envy of its neighbors. Although high level talks are scheduled to resume again on Monday, analysts are doubtful that Mugabe will agree to the opposition’s demand that the government release all detained political prisoners.

-Nora Coghlan

Here’s a clip of Senator Clinton’s remarks on global development at her confirmation hearings which are happening now. We’ll have further policy analysis soon. (Transcript below.)

In Africa, the foreign policy objectives of the Obama administration are rooted in security, political, economic, and humanitarian interests, including: combating al Qaeda’s efforts to seek safe havens in failed states in the Horn of Africa; helping African nations to conserve their natural resources and reap fair benefits from them; stopping war in Congo; ending autocracy in Zimbabwe and human devastation in Darfur; supporting African democracies like South Africa and Ghana–which just had its second change of power in democratic elections; and working aggressively to reach the Millennium Development Goals in health, education, and economic opportunity.

Many significant problems we face challenge not just the United States, but all nations and peoples. You, Mr. Chairman, were among the first, in a growing chorus from both parties, to recognize that climate change is an unambiguous security threat. At the extreme it threatens our very existence, but well before that point, it could very well incite new wars of an old kind—over basic resources like food, water, and arable land. The world is in need of an urgent, coordinated response to climate change and, as President- Elect Obama has said, America must be a leader in developing and implementing it. We can lead abroad through participation in international efforts like the upcoming UN Copenhagen Climate Conference and a Global Energy Forum. We can lead at home by pursuing an energy policy that reduces our carbon emissions while reducing our dependence on foreign oil and gas—which will benefit the fight against climate change and enhance our economy and security.

The great statesman and general George Marshall noted that our gravest enemies are often not nations or doctrines, but “hunger, poverty, desperation, and chaos.” To create more friends and fewer enemies, we can’t just win wars. We must find common ground and common purpose with other peoples and nations so that together we can overcome hatred, violence, lawlessness, and despair.

The Obama administration recognizes that, even when we cannot fully agree with some governments, we share a bond of humanity with their people. By investing in that common humanity we advance our common security because we pave the way for a more peaceful, prosperous world. Mr. Chairman, you were one of the first to underscore the importance of our involvement in the global AIDS fight. And you have worked very hard on this issue for many years. Now, thanks to a variety of efforts—including President Bush’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief as well as the work of NGOs and foundations—the United States enjoys widespread support in public opinion polls in many African countries. This is true even among Muslim populations in Tanzania and Kenya, where America is seen as a leader in the fight against AIDS, malaria, and TB.

We have an opportunity to build on this success by partnering with NGOs to help expand the infrastructure of health clinics in Africa so that more people can have access to life-saving drugs, fewer mothers transmit HIV to their children, and fewer lives are lost. And we can generate even more goodwill through other kinds of social investment, by working effectively with international organizations and NGO partners to build schools and train teachers, and by ensuring that children are free from hunger and exploitation so that they can attend those schools and pursue their dreams for the future. This is why the President-Elect supports a Global Education Fund to bolster secular education around the world.

I want to take a moment to emphasize the importance of a “bottom-up” approach to ensuring that America remains a positive force in the world. The President-elect and I believe in this strongly. Investing in our common humanity through social development is not marginal to our foreign policy but integral to accomplishing our goals. Today more than two billion people worldwide live on less than $2 a day. They are facing rising food prices and widespread hunger. Calls for expanding civil and political rights in countries plagued by mass hunger and disease will fall on deaf ears unless democracy actually delivers material benefits that improve people’s lives while weeding out the corruption that too often stands in the way of progress.

Our foreign policy must reflect our deep commitment to the cause of making human rights a reality for millions of oppressed people around the world. Of particular concern to me is the plight of women and girls, who comprise the majority of the world’s unhealthy, unschooled, unfed, and unpaid. If half of the world’s population remains vulnerable to economic, political, legal, and social marginalization, our hope of advancing democracy and prosperity will remain in serious jeopardy. We still have a long way to go and the United States must remain an unambiguous and unequivocal voice in support of women’s rights in every country, every region, on every continent.

-Chris Scott

Associated Press: Zimbabwe Economic Collapse Challenges Aid Workers
Aid agencies such as CARE and Oxfam fighting Cholera in Zimbabwe say they are working relatively well with a government that once viewed them with suspicion, but they still face challenges because of the country’s economic collapse. “We’re operating at what passes for normal in Zimbabwe,” [CARE spokesman Kenneth] Walker said.

Financial Times: Blair reappears as choice to be EU president
Tony Blair is re-emerging as a possible choice to be the European Union’s first full-time president after four momentous crises reinforced the argument for having a high-profile international personality in the job.

Financial Times: ‘Lifestyle’ diseases saddle poor countries
The infectious diseases that have traditionally killed the world’s poor are starting to recede. Instead, people in Africa, India and China are beginning to die of the same things that kill westerners: chiefly, obesity- and smoking-related diseases. This change is known as the “epidemiological transition”. How it plays out over the next few years will determine whether people in poor countries can for the first time expect to live into old age or whether they will simply start dying of different things.

BBC News: Kenya to declare food emergency
Kenya is to declare a national emergency because of a drought affecting the East African country. President Mwai Kibaki’s government warned that nearly 10 million people – more than a quarter of the population – were at risk from food shortages. The government intends to import five million bags of maize, reduce the price of seeds and buy up livestock in drought-hit areas to ease the crisis.Famine relief packages including maize and beans are also to be distributed.

-Chandler Smith

Today as Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe continued to downplay the cholera epidemic in Zimbabwe, claiming that the outbreak was caused by “Western germ warfare”, the UN reports that the cholera death toll has risen 25% in three days.

Excerpts below:

The U.N. humanitarian office says the total number of suspected cases reported in the southern African country has risen to 18,413 since the start of the outbreak in August.

The figures reported Monday by the World Health Organizations were up from the 792 deaths and 16,700 cases reported Friday. The World Health Organization has said the total number of cases could reach 60,000 unless the epidemic is stopped.

You can read more about the deteriorating situation in Zimbabwe here.

-Chris Scott

This week we’ve been keeping you posted about the crisis situation in Zimbabwe and mounting international pressure on President Robert Mugabe to step down. Despite a staggering cholera epidemic sweeping Zimbabwe, Mugabe continues to deny the magnitude of the epidemic, adding further chaos to the growing crisis. Today the New York Times published a fascinating and insightful piece on where things currently stand.

Excerpts below, full piece here

The outbreak is yet more evidence that Zimbabwe’s most fundamental public services — from water and sanitation to public schools and hospitals — are shutting down, much like the organs of a severely dehydrated cholera victim.

Zimbabwe’s once promising economy, disastrously mismanaged by President Robert G. Mugabe’s government, has been spiraling downward for almost a decade, but residents here say the free fall has gained frightening velocity in recent weeks. Most of the nation’s schools, which were once the pride of Africa, producing a highly literate population, have virtually ceased to function as teachers, whose salaries no longer even cover the cost of the bus fare to work, quit showing up.

In a country that already lays claim to the terrible distinction of having the second highest proportion of orphans in the world — one in four children has lost one or both parents — the closure of schools and hospitals is hitting these most vulnerable children mercilessly.

-Chris Scott

This morning, President Bush lent his voice to a growing global call for Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe to step down. Bush’s statement followed similar demands made by the European Union and a call from UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown for the international community to defend human rights and democracy in Zimbabwe. This toughened rhetoric from Western leaders has been accompanied by a tightening of restrictions on the Zimbabwean government- last week the the US extended sanctions against four individuals and 20 companies who have been financially supporting Mugabe’s government.

This renewed pressure on Mugabe comes as evidence of the deteriorating situation inside Zimbabwe emerges– the country’s collapsed water and sanitation infrastructure has led to a cholera outbreak, which has already claimed the lives of nearly 600 and the World Health Organization warns might infect up to 6,000 in a worst-case scenario.> A lack of doctors, equipment and treatment (oral rehydration salts which cost as little as 50 cents per dose) means the fatality rate is much higher than usual. Aid agencies are estimating that cholera patients in Zimbabwe are ten times more likely to die than patients living elsewhere.

The outbreak is the latest update to a long list of evidence on how failed governance and gross economic mismanagement have destroyed what was once one of Africa’s most promising countries. In the years after independence, Zimbabwe was hailed as a regional breadbasket and boasted one of Africa’s highest literacy rates. Today, on top of skyrocketing inflation and an ongoing political crisis, Zimbabweans face acute food shortages and an education system in shambles: the World Food Program anticipates that half of Zimbabwe’s population (over 5 million people) will be in need of emergency food aid in January and as of October, students in Zimbabwe had only been in the classroom for a total of 23 uninterrupted days.

The question now is whether global outcry over the cholera epidemic is just the latest in a series of grievances against the Mugabe regime or the tipping point needed to inject new momentum towards a real and lasting solution. Importantly, increased pressure from Western governments has been echoed by some key African leaders- last week, Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga called for Mugabe’s removal and in November, the leader of South Africa’s African National Congress, Jacob Zuma, indicated a tougher stance towards the Zimbabwean government, saying the situation had moved beyond “wait and see”, and that “We have got to act and act now.” The fact that the epidemic is spilling over into neighboring countries could mean voices like these might become stronger in the days ahead.

These African voices are vital in moving toward a lasting solution for Zimbabwe. Although emergency aid could help ease the cholera epidemic and fill food shortages, Zimbabwe’s current plight is the product of a long-term socioeconomic demise that only the establishment of a functioning and inclusive government can resolve (as noted by the Elders last week after their visit to the region). Ultimately, such a solution will depend on Zimbabwe’s neighbors. Mugabe has weathered sanctions and pressure from the West for years. Now, as his country tips towards a breaking point, the onus is on African leaders to turn rhetoric into action and renew efforts towards ending the crisis. The rest of the world should be poised and ready so that once this happens, Zimbabwe has the support it needs to stand a real chance at winning back some of the development gains it lost after 28 years of Mugabe’s rule.

-Nora Coghlan

News just broke that President George W. Bush has formally called upon Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe to step down from his post, ratcheting up international pressure on Mugabe. We’ll keep you posted with further news and analysis about the situation as it develops.

Statement from President Bush:

As my Administration has made clear, it is time for Robert Mugabe to go. Across the continent, African voices are bravely speaking out to say now is the time for him to step down. These leaders share the desire of ordinary Zimbabweans for a return to peace, democracy and prosperity. We urge others from the region to step up and join the growing chorus of voices calling for an end to Mugabe’s tyranny.

-Chris Scott