The cost of climate change

Oct 8th, 2009 3:55 PM UTC
By Pooja Gupta

By 2050, the global temperature is expected to rise 2°C above pre-industrial levels causing, among other consequences, more intense and frequent rainfall and droughts, floods, increases in epidemics and water availability. For the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people, adapting to these changes will be costly. However, almost no specific estimates of just how costly exist. To fill this gap, the World Bank launched the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (EACC) study in 2008. Last Wednesday, the third day of the climate change talks in Bangkok, the World Bank released initial results from this study, revealing that adaptation costs will indeed be significant.

The initial report found that the cost of adapting to an approximately 2°C warmer world will be between $75 billion and $100 billion a year. This estimate falls in the upper range of existing estimates, which are between $4 billion to $109 billion annually. According to the report, impacts on agriculture and fisheries, health, water availability, flood management and infrastructure will be the most severe. According to the report, sub-Saharan Africa will bear 20-22% of the annual costs of adaptation across sectors. Sub-Saharan Africa also bears by far the highest costs for water supply and flood management and by 2050, will shoulder more than 80 percent of adaptation costs in the health sector.

The report also emphasizes three main points. One, it is necessary to take measures for both mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Adaptation financing, while vital to minimize the impacts of climate change, will not prevent future consequences. Adapting to an even warmer world would cause more costs, including coastal flooding, more malnutrition and disease, and extinction of half of the world’s species. Secondly, development must take on a new form to include adaptation efforts. Development and adaptation goes hand-in-hand, and one cannot be achieved without the other. Lastly, because of the large uncertainties about the future of climate change, flexible policies and more research are needed. These measures and considerations are vital to preventing an increasingly costly world due to climate change.

Such estimates on adaptation costs and research on the future of climate change are especially pertinent now as world delegates look toward the December Copenhagen conference, where leaders will attempt to formulate a global deal on climate change. Check out the full report here.

TAGS: Climate and Development, Policy News