Imagine what the state of global health might be today if we had been able to predict how and approximately when HIV would surface and swell to the epidemic proportions it has today. If, as they say, forewarned is forearmed, we might have preemptively set up better systems for controlling the spread of HIV and we may have had a jumpstart on researching a vaccine before the virus adapted and mutated into the myriad of strains we have today. What we know of today as one of the largest threats to health and development might have turned out altogether differently if we had had some small indication of what was to come. Wishful thinking you say? Maybe not entirely.

American and British scientists have come up with some rather sophisticated models which just might allow us to map out and predict where the next new disease might emerge. One of the leading scientists who has championed this research, Peter Daszak, will present a map of ‘Emerging Disease Hotspots’ at an open congressional briefing hosted by Senators Sam Brownback and Richard Durbin on Wednesday, April 16 in Washington D.C. (See the invitation here!)

Dr. Daszak’s findings show that some of the new disease hotspots will be in the tropics and developing countries where the growth of human populations wildlife is clashing with wildlife diversity. When human population continues to grow and crowd out wildlife, something has to give, and that something will be human health.

Meanwhile, all the latest cutting-edge research and surveillance has been focused on the developed world where research resources abound and not in the developing countries where the outbreaks are likely to happen. Sound familiar? The underfunding of research into the diseases of poorer countries presents yet another disparity.

With this new ability to predict and get a head start on disease, we have an opportunity to deploy resources to poor parts of the world where proper surveillance is lacking. Through global health research and surveillance funding at agencies like the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), we have an opportunity to curb the next swarm of emerging infectious diseases. This time round, we have no excuse not to.

If you are in Washington DC, some Capitol Hill this Wednesday at noon (Russell House Building 385) and hear Dr. Daszak and Dr Khan (CDC) address the topic – Infectious Disease Threats: What’s Next?

-Kudzai Makomva, Families USA Global Health Initiative